History 3345–Lectures & PowerPoints
History 345
From Bush to Obama
29 November 2011
I. Issues in the Transition
1. The Israeli Alliance (the Olmert coalitionàLivni, but also Peretz; 2nd Lebanon War, Hezbollah, and international condemnation; Winograd Commission & removal of Peretz; consistent support from Bushà2008 visits; emergence of Hamas & failure of Rice/Bush democracy agenda; Hamas in PA, 2007 coup in Gaza strip & international isolation; rocket attacks, Israeli response: path to Operation Cast Lead; Goldstone Report & radicalization of Israeli politics; 2009 election)
2. The Pakistani “Alliance” (Rice and behind-the-scenes activity; Bhutto assassination in Pakistan; increasing peril in Pakistani border areas; Pakistan in 2008 campaign; demise of Musharraf; increased drone activity; Bin Laden raid; increased anti-Americanism in Pakistan)
II. The Obama Agenda
1. Military Escalation and De-Escalation (Iraq in the 2008 campaign: early Obama opposition, Edwards “flexibility,” Clinton, Penn, and refusal to apologize; Obama national security team—Clinton, Gates, Panetta; winding down Iraqi occupation; Afghanistan—campaign commitments, internal debate [role of Biden] & embrace of Petraeus strategy; exit strategy?)
2. Diplomatic Successes & Difficulties (early Obama addresses & hope to reset relationship; U.S. & Green Revolution—dilemma of limited options; Obama, international coalition, & Iranian nuclear program; U.S. & Arab Spring—“lead from behind,” working with allies & international organizations [Libya], willingness to accommodate national interest [Bahrain], limited leverage [Syria]; Obama & Netanyahu—issue of settlements, U.S. domestic politics—collapse of J Street, Netanyahu & Republicans—partisan divisions & Israel; issue of Iranian nuclear weapon)
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I. Path to Iraq War
1. Domestic Response to 9/11 (Patriot Act and civil liberties; Yoo and unitary executive theory; Lieberman and Homeland Security Department; Rove and political issues—Chambliss/Cleland race)
2. Attention to Iraq (rationales: neocons: invasion as forerunner to spread of democracy; Cheney: WMD’s & “One Percent Doctrine”—relationship with Chalabi, Office of Special Plans and undoing excesses of 1970s; Bush and personal motives?; Tenet, Powell, WMD’s)
3. Nature of War (Shinseki and military resistance; Haass and State Department skepticism—contingency plans and postwar planning?; “Coalition of the Willing”: significance of Turkish refusal; French/German hostility; Blix and lack of WMD; transformation of Blair; congressional vote; fighting & consequences?: ouster of Saddam, positive developments in Libya & Lebanon?)
III. War & Consequences
1. Backlash (Yoo, Bybee, & torture memos: OLC withdrawal, path to 2009 OPR memo; establishment of Guantánamo; Abu Ghraib, torture, and international condemnation; Al Qaeda targets US allies—Spain, Britain; salvaging Iraq: Petraeus appointment and rationale for surge—how to evaluate?)
2. Bush & the Israeli Alliance (Sharon and realignment of Israeli politics; Gaza withdrawal—what was goal?; formation of Kadima & Sharon stroke—election of Olmert; 2nd Lebanon War, Hezbollah, and international condemnation; consistent support from Bush)
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History 3345
New Terror Threats: 9/11 & Its Aftermath
17 November 2011
I. The United States and Islamist Terrorism
1. The Threat Emerges (legacy of Watergate & various CIA/FBI legal restrictions: Gorelick tightening; 1993 WTC attack & plans of “Blind Sheikh”àamateur effort or legitimate threat?, decision to enforce through legal channels; Iran and state-sponsored terror network: Khomeini death and Khamenei replacement as supreme leader; Khamenei links to Revolutionary Guards; Iran & Hezbollah/Hamas terror networks; Khobar Towers attack—FBI and forensic investigation; identification of Iran but broader geo-political concerns—1997 election of Khatami and possibility of détente?)
2. The Evolution of Bin Laden (Bin Laden’s path—from Afghanistan to Saudi Arabia; expelled to Sudan, 1996 expulsion & return to Afghanistan; Taliban consolidation & co-dependent relationship; new national security team; the West & the Taliban: administration divisions: Taliban as potential allies against bin Laden, or clear enemies [Richardson/State vs. Clarke]; assassination acceptable [DOD/Clarke/CIA vs. Justice Department]; Taliban as ideological or strategic enemies [Hillary vs. Clarke])
3. The Focus on Bin Laden (creation of “Bin Laden Unit”; 1998 East African bombings; Nairobi and Dar es Salaam; cruise missile response—difficulties with ISI; domestic limitations on Clinton—impeachment and Sudan, options? Northern Alliance; overstated? fizzling of Millennium threats, then USS Cole—Yemeni port scheme, futility of Clinton response, US as “paper tiger”?; terrorism & 2000 election)
II. 9/11 and Beyond
1. Early Bush (foreign policy team—weakness of Powell, role of Rice, Rumsfeld death watch?, retaining Tenet; Clarke and bureaucratic battles; warnings from the field—Arizona, Minnesota; weaknesses in airport security—airline industry, consumer groups, fear of federal power; PDF; path to attacks; blame?)
2. International Response (Bush/Rumsfeld, Clarke, and Saddam?; significance of Tenet; NATO and international support; U.S. and Northern Alliance; revising Musharraf relationship; decision for war; ousting the Taliban, bolstering Karzai; failure to capture bin Laden)
3. Domestic Response (Patriot Act and civil liberties; Yoo and unitary executive theory; Lieberman and Homeland Security Department; Rove and political issues—Chambliss/Cleland race)
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History 3345
Clinton & Peacemaking
15 November 2011
I. The Balkans Re-Emerge
1. Milošević and Yugoslavia (persistence of communist order in southeastern Europe; PHOTO Milošević and Kosovo—nationalism as path to power in post-communist world; Serbia to presidency and collapse of Yugoslavia: failure of international diplomacy)
2. The Bosnian Tragedy (Clinton international vision; mediocre national security team; difficulties with Powell—question of using military force; Sarajevo & international image; Bosnian demographics; Izetbegović & effort to establish pluralistic state; Mladić, Karadžić, & revival of European fascism; international response: arms embargoàimpossibility of enforcement; atrocities & “Afghan Arabs”; shelling of Sarajevo; congressional pressure: Wilson, McCloskey/Dole; role of media—Amanpour; “ethnic cleansing” & Srebrenica; path to Dayton)
3. Kosovo (new national security team—Cohen, Albright; Kosovo & continued nationalist tensions; general sympathy with Kosovars; bombing of Belgrade and fall of Milošević; missed opportunity?)
II. Rise & Fall of the Peace Process
1. Structural Changes (Madrid Conference & jumpstarting of peace process; baseline Israeli (Zionism-is-racism resolution) and Palestinian (settlements) demands; meager progress under Shamir; 1992 Israeli election & apparent realignment—Rabin and peace-oriented coalition; Arafat & fallout from Gulf WaràKuwaiti, Saudi reactions, need for new foreign patrons; Clinton & new generation of American leadership)
2. High Tide (Oslo: direct Israel-PLO negotiations; division of West Bank into zones and plans for Israeli withdrawal, Palestinian self-government; decision to defer thorniest issues—right of return, status of Jerusalem, settlements, borders; role of Clinton; awarding of Nobel Prizes; Israeli peace treaty with Jordan—normalization of relations, opening of border crossings, enhanced economic ties)
3. Decline (assassination of Rabin & focus on Israeli far right; Peres’ attempt to consolidate; 1996 election: terror attacks, Netanyahu surge, and fall of Labor; first Netanyahu government & slowing of peace process; broader strategic shiftsàincreasing international opposition to Iraqi sanctions, gradual strengthening of Hamas)
4. Demise (Barak victory & re-emergence of Israeli left?; Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon—Hezbollah & unpredictable results; Clinton emphasis on settlement—insufficient preparation?; Arafat and Palestinian politicsàpressure from Hamas, general hostility to recognition of Israel—contrast with reluctant Israeli acceptance of two-state solution; Arafat rejection, Sharon to Temple Mount, start of 2nd intifada; collapse of Barak government)
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History 3345
The First Gulf War
November 10, 2011
I. The End of the Cold War and the Revival of Middle East Tensions
1. Setting the Agenda (Bush foreign policy team—Scowcroft & Baker; Cheney, Powell, Gates; NSD 26; Bush and the Saudis; NSD 26 & Iraq—mixed messages, Congress: Dole, Simpson, and aid, Metzenbaum and human rights, Gonzales, Kerry, and BNL; Justice Department)
2. Summer of 1990 (Israeli shift to right; Bush and Shamir; demise of national unity government and Israeli resistance to US pressure—effects on US public opinion; increased Iraqi threats & inconsistent US response; Kuwait dispute: diplomatic failure?, trusting Saudis;USintelligence failure?; Saddam’s invasion & Kuwaiti capitulation)
II. The Gulf War
1. Run-up to the War (Bush background; Bush, Thatcher, and decision to protest; significance of Saudis; Kuwaitis and U.S. public opinion; Bush and international coalition—role of Arab states; role of UN—significance of Shevardnadze, realism and the relationship with PRC, path to UN 678; congressional Democrats and post-Cold War world; 1990 elections; congressional pressure; Senate debate; Baker-Aziz meeting)
2. War & Aftermath (decision for war and operation of coalition military strategies—air campaign, effect ofVietnam; diplomatic strategies—importance ofIsrael, Scuds and Palestinians; media and the war—CNN, Scud Stud; invasion and Powell Doctrine; no-fly zones and Bush response; UN sanctions and WMDs)
III. Limits of Diplomacy
1.Afghanistan (media role; Wilson and continued push for aid; ISI and Kashmir; Najibullah and desire for national unity government—Bush, Wilson, Pakistan rejection; Pressler amendment & distancing of US from Pakistan; bureaucratic divisions, global distractions; what could US have done differently?—question of leverage)
2.Libya (legacy of the 1980s: Qaddafi international militancy, domestic revolutionary approach, ties with terror organizations; Lockerbie bombing & various theories; forensic investigation & focus on Malta connection; sanctions regime & international pressure on Qaddafi)
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History 3345
The United States, Southwest Asia, & the End of the Cold War
8 November 2011
I. The Iran-Iraq War
1. The Early Conflict (Iraqi attack & early fighting; Iranian response & human wave tactics; shift of military control to clerical leadership; Iraqi offer of cease-fire & Iranian refusal; U.S. strategic shift—path to CENTCOM, Cold War framework, introduction to Gulf; Middle East balance of power and tilt toward Saddam: Saudi/Kuwaiti financial assistance, Soviet arms sales, Rumsfeld visit, poison gas?, Metzenbaum; origins of Syria-Iran alliance & Saddam difficulty in selling oil; collapse of world oil market, US strategic oil reserve)
2. The Iran-contra Affair (Reagan and international terrorism—the rhetoric; search for the Iran “moderates”; role of NSC; diversion of funds to contras; Hasenfus and crash; from Lebanon to Washington; Meese investigation; Tower Committee; what was Reagan’s role? Bush’s?; Inouye Committee and North as GOP folk hero)
3. The Tanker War (from “war of the cities” to “war of the tankers”; Straits of Hormuz, and UN no-fire zone; Iraqi reaction and Iranian response; US and Gulf States—significance of Kuwait; initial tangles with Iran; USS Stark and reflagging decision; constitutional issues; naval showdown with IranàIran Air 655; UN 598 and end of war)
II. Afghanistan
1. Casey & Wilson (Casey: personal background—role of covert operations, Catholicism and attitudes toward Cold War, personal influence; Reagan Doctrine and “rollback”; Wilson: personal background; interests in foreign policy, bureaucratic influence: Def Appropriations Subcommittee)
2. The Covert Operation (centrality of Pakistan—changing interpretations of Zia regime; diplomacy by intelligence cooperation—CIA, Saudis, ISI; CIA and fear of “nation-building”; decision to supply stingers; unification of mujahedeen and rise of Afghan Arabs; Reagan and “freedom fighters”; Gorbachev and decision to scale down intervention—effects on collapse of USSR?; path toward end of Cold War)
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History 3345
The Reagan Agenda
3 November 2011
I. Lebanon as Failed State
1. The Foundation (destabilization of Lebanese politics; refugees, PLO, and state within a state; outside interventions—Syria and increasing influence, Israel and Lebanese Christians; Osirak attack & Israeli public opinion; international condemnation; 1981 Knesset election and narrow right-wing majority—appointment of Sharon as defense minister)
2. Military Action (increasing Israeli-PLO tensions; Israeli invasion of Lebanon—driving out PLO, international mediation; tensions between Israel & Gemayel; assassination of Gemayelàpath to Sabra & Shatila; aftermath in Israel, internationally)
3. The U.S. Response (Haig and the U.S.-Israeli relationship—turning the other cheek?; Habib missions; getting Israeli troops out of BeirutàUN multinational force; difficulty in articulating rationale for U.S. policy; divisions within administrationà Schultz vs. Weinberger; intervention as debate over War Powers Act—Hart candidacy; increasing perception that Marines backing Christians; Hezbollah terrorist attack; U.S. withdrawal)
II. The Scourge of Terrorism
1. Hezbollah (targeting Americans in Beirut: military/intelligence (William Buckley, William Higgins); academics (David Dodge, Malcolm Kerr, AUB professors & administrators); journalists (Anderson, Levin); difficulty of diplomacy—Terry Waite kidnapping; TWA 847 hijacking (Robert Stethem execution; public reaction; role of Iran)
2. Beyond Lebanon (Palestinian terrorism—PLO exile into Tunisia; Abu Abbas, PLF, & Achille Lauro hijackingàdeath of Kinghoffer, Italian double-dealing; Qaddafi & Berlin attack; U.S. bombing raid & bombing of Qaddafi compound; Libya as international pariah)
3. The Iran-contra Affair (Reagan and international terrorism—the rhetoric; search for the Iran “moderates”; role of NSC; diversion of funds to contras; Hasenfus and crash; from Lebanon to Washington; Meese investigation; Tower Committee; what was Reagan’s role? Bush’s?; Inouye Committee and North as GOP folk hero)
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History 3345
New Directions (1979-81)
2 November 2011
I. Crisis Atmosphere
1. The Iranian Revolution (Carter and the Shah; Derian and foreign aidàdecision to hold off on AWACS sale; weakening of Shah; US intelligence failure—trapped in the 1950s?; death of regime)
2. The Iranian Revolution (second oil shock; political structure of regime: Bani-Sadr, Khomeini, role of extra-constitutional structures (Revolutionary Guard); taking of hostagesàIranian government or random act?; increasing anti-Americanism & Islamic radicalismàattack on embassy in Pakistan; short-term political effects; effects on American popular cultureàKoppel and Nightline; failed rescue mission and resignation of Vance; perception of US ineptness and impotence)
3. The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan (Afghanistan and the great game; deposition of Zahir Shah and beginning of instability; Islam and Communism; Brezhnev Doctrine and assassination of Amin; Karmal presidency and Soviet invasion; origins of mujahidinàCarter decision to boycott Moscow Olympics)
II. Reagan and the Middle East
1. The Reagan Team (election of 1980 and altered American political culture; religious right and Middle East issues; Weinberger & growth of defense budget; importance of William Casey, Haig, Kirkpatrick; nomination of Lefever & repudiation of human rights diplomacy; increasing importance of NSC)
2. AWACS (Big Oil and Saudi alliance; altered strategic situation—Iran/Iraq war; Yemen, Ethiopia, Sadat assassination; Reagan and confronting Congress; Israel Lobby and House rejection; peculiar role of Jepsen; final Senate vote; long-term significance of outcome)
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History 3345
Transforming Middle East International Relations
27 October 2011
I. Crisis Atmosphere
1. Oil Crisis (origins of OPEC diplomacy and transformation of Middle East—importance of Saudi Arabia, strains in European alliance; U.S. vulnerability & impact of production cutàgas shortages, inflation, effects on heavy industry & overall productivity; popular images of Arab leaders)
2. Constitutional Crisis (Nixon, executive authority, & development of Watergate; revelation of tapes & movement toward impeachment; War Powers Actàpush for increased congressional role in international affairs)
3. Foreign Policy Crisis (colonels’ regime, coup, and Turkish invasion; U.S. reaction—arms sales issue: Symington and Pakistan, Nelson-Bingham amendment, Middle East as venue; Greek lobby—importance of Sarbanes and Brademas, imitating Israeli lobby; path to Eagleton amendment; reaction—Kissinger, Turkey and US bases, congressional retreat; legacy: erratic congressional role, discrediting new internationalists?, significance of Turkey)
II. The Carter Transition
1. Carter’s Energy Policy (merging of economic & national security issues; appointment of Schlesinger; political constraints: oil states, economy and heavy industry, environmentalism & nuclear energy—divisions in public opinion; political gridlock)
2. Carter and the Middle East Peace Process (Sadat and realpolitik; Meir, Rabin, and collapse of Labor; 1977 election & Begin victoryàlong-term significance in Israeli politics—but also short-term effects; Carter and foreign policy—1976 campaign, odd arrangement—Vance, Brzezinski, Derian; Camp David Conference—issue of Israeli settlements, implementing UN Res. 242; nature of settlement; limited political benefits)
3. The Iranian Revolution (Carter and the Shah; Derian and foreign aidàdecision to hold off on AWACS sale; weakening of Shah; US intelligence failure—trapped in the 1950s?; death of regime)
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History 3345
Middle East Realpolitik
20 October 2011
I. The Nixon Years
1. Structure & Vision (Nixon background: political decline, refashioning himself as foreign policy expert, transition from anti-communist extremist to elder statesmen, Six Crises and overall approach; transforming international affairs: Vietnamization, opening to PRC, détente and Soviet Union; role of Kissinger; distrust of State Department & bypassing Rogers)
2. Reorienting U.S. Middle Eastern Policy (search for new anchors—Iran: role of Shah, strategic concerns, relationship with Israel, preference for authoritarianism; emergence of new enemies: Saddam and Ba’ath coup; Qaddafi and Green Revolution; Assad and Syria as Soviet ally)
3. Middle East and Domestic Affairs (oil diplomacy: formation of OPEC, initial continuation of status quo; movement toward nationalization—Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Iran; Helms appointment & Nixon ideas; terrorism: European far left—aftermath of 1968; anti-semitism and European terrorism [Red Army Fraction]; alliance between European and Palestinian terror groups; Munich massacre & U.S. public opinion; Jewish emigration: origins of Jackson-Vanik amendment; Nixon response & threat to détente)
II. 1973 and Aftermath
1. Missed Opportunities (Jordan crisis & consolidation of Hussein’s power; Sadat and outreach to West; Kissinger distraction; [meeting with Meir], Egypt and creation of anti-Israel alliance—importance of Iraq and Libya, resumption of relations with Syria, squeezing Jordan; the Soviet role)
2. The 1973 War (outbreak of war and Israeli intelligence failure; legacy of preemption; Egyptian and Syrian advances; failure of mediation and US decision to airlift; Brezhnev role—testing limitations of détente?; Kissinger, Nixon, and constitutional crisis—nuclear mobilization; reversal of fortunes; path to cease-fire: both sides win?; aftermath: oil boycott & energy crisis)
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History 3345
The Six-Day War & U.S. Diplomacy
18 October 2011
I. The United States and the Six-Day War
1. Early Events (Nasser diplomacy and impact of Soviets—significance of military aid, growing confidence in Arab world; Eshkol domestic weaknesses—peculiarities of Israeli political system, feud with Ben Gurion, role of Dayan; decision for preemption)
2. War and American Diplomacy (strike of Egyptian air force & rout in Sinai; King Hussein’s decision to enter war; Golan fighting and international pressure for cease-fire; Liberty and Israeli-American relations; growth of conspiracy theories—LBJ decision to downplay crisis)
II. Aftermath
1. Great Power Diplomacy (path to Glassboro Summit; US-USSR differences over appropriate UN role: Cold War comes to the Arab-Israeli conflict?; Western Europe and war—diminution of Israeli support, hostility of De Gaulle)
2. UN (Jerusalem and international concern; adoption of UN Res. 242; Khartoum Declaration and death of land-for-peace?; LBJ transitioning & desire for new UN ambassador)
3. Israeli-U.S. Strategic Partnership (Phantom sale—Symington efforts, LBJ approach, State Department opposition, LBJ ultimate intervention; maintaining regional allies: oil diplomacy, significance of military aid—Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Iran; tensions with Egypt, Syria, and Iraq; European influence—Lebanon, Gulf region)
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History 3345
LBJ and Israel
13 October 2011
I. The Johnson Agenda
1. The Foreign Aid Revolt (postwar constitutional transformations; expansion of foreign aid and origins of policy ridersà path to Gruening-Keating amendment and foreign aid to aggressor states; left-right coalition and significance of Passman in House; LBJ inability to shape outcome, importance of popular opinion)
2. Initial Contacts (LBJ background; approach to foreign policy; immediate political needs; LBJ & Israel; Israel’s changing international positionàDeGaulle international vision, search for foreign arms; Erhard visit to LBJ Ranch; LBJ & brokering of tank deal; Eshkol visit to United States)
II. The Changing U.S. Role in the Middle East
1. The Israeli Tank Sale (King Hussein and the Western vision of the Middle East; creation of UAC & international pressure; Palestinians & domestic pressure; Soviet role; Israeli & West German political divisions; concern with domestic pressure; State Department Arabists; centrality of LBJ role; peculiar decision-making; long-term significance)
2. Broader Concerns (recalibrating advisors: increased prominence of Rusk, McNamara, Bundy; harder-line approachàVietnam, Dominican Republic; carry-over to Middle Eastàconcern with Nasser, British-Yemeni struggle, détente with Iran)
3. Path to the Six-Day War (creation of PLO; anti-Zionism & Arab League; intra-Arab tensions about role; Skyhawks sale; Samu incident & international effects; Nasser’s increasing anti-Zionism; increased tensions)
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History 3345
Kennedy and the Middle East
11 October 2011
I. Democracy and Development
1. Democracy and Development (Kennedy national security team—Cold War reform, emphasis on Africa/Asia/Latin America: counterinsurgency, promotion of democracy—Latin America, Vietnam; Iran as case study: 1950s legacy—martial law, rigged elections, growing popular discontent; developmental aid, democratic surge?; Shah’s response—military aid, heighten fear of communism, growth of SAVAK; turning point: US and Amini government—withdrawal of support, road to “White Revolution”)
2. The Turn toward Israel (DDE legacy: security guarantee, arms procurement, Johnston Plan and water diplomacy, improving relations late 1950s?; JFK: Israel as model?—Kennedy and developmentalism; politics—Democratic coalition; Egyptian role in U.S. decision to sell Hawk missiles to Israel; difficulty with refugees)
II. Strategic Issues
1. Nuclear Diplomacy (Turkey: Jupiters and the Eisenhower legacy; Kennedy and reconsiderationàpush for Polaris, Turkish resistance, State Department passivity; Khrushchev, Castro, and origins of Cuban Missile Crisis; Turkey and Jupiters; ramifications; Kennedy and nonproliferation; tensions over Dimona; Ben Gurion, Eshkol, and inspection)
2. Nasser and Cold War concerns (Kennedy, Nasser, and neutralism; collapse of UAR; significance of Yemen intervention and Jordan crisis; broader concerns: Iraqi coup, firming of US-Saudi alliance)
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History 3345
Crisis Diplomacy
6 October 2011
I . Suez & Its Effects
1. Intervention (origins of Project OMEGA; creation of anti-Nasser alliance: Eden and Munich analogy, France and Algerian war, Israel and tense relationship with Egypt, French arms; keeping Eisenhower in dark; initial military successes; international outcry)
2. Turmoil & Aftermath (Hungarian uprising—Secret Speech, Nagy reform government & popular uprising, Soviet intervention & bankruptcy of rollback rhetoric, Nagy death; impact on events in EgyptàEisenhower pressure and British/French withdrawal, Eden resignation, UN settlement; lingering U.S.-Israeli tensions)
II. Beyond Suez
1. CIA (Syria: ARAMCO pipeline & U.S. legacy in Syria; Operation STRAGGLE—joint Turkish/British/US cooperation, effect of Suez on disrupting unity; from Operation WAPPEN to creation of U.A.R. 1958; Iran: U.S. assistance in creation of SAVAK)
2. Collapse (DDE and congressional power: Formosa Doctrine as precedent; debate over Eisenhower Doctrine—constitutional questions, Democratic divisions; implementation: Qasim coup in Iraq; powers’ response—Britain to Jordan, U.S. to Lebanon (Operation BLUE BAT); rise and fall of Chamoun; Israel: DDE vision, moderate public support, Douglas amendment and congressional role, limitations of US-Egyptian rapprochement)
III. The Fringes
1. Algeria (French postwar position and political culture—limitations of 4th Republic, outbreak of revolt and FLN, role of international public opinion, alternative to Cold War?, Kennedy speech and American anti-colonial traditions, DDE difficulties)
2. Turkey (Eisenhower and nuclear weapons, decision to build Jupiters: US-British tensions, domestic pressures, limits of DDE theories; effects of Sputnik and offer to all NATO; who will take?: limitations of Greece, Italy, West Germany; decision to station in Turkey; ramifications)
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History 3345
The Cold War & the Search for Stability in the Middle East
27 September 2011
I. The Eisenhower Transition
1. The New Look (rollback, McCarthyism, and the 1952 campaign—Republican coalition; NSC 162/2; role of economy; realism and end of Korean War; massive retaliation and Dulles; covert operations; role of Congress and McCarthyism; East Asian diplomacy and significance of Formosa Doctrine; where does Middle East fit in?)
2. Transforming the Middle East (renegotiation of ARAMCO deal [50-50 with Saudis] & regional effect; 1951 election of Mussadiqàpath to nationalizing Iranian oil fields; British opposition & role of Churchill—imposition of oil embargo; deterioration of U.S. relationship but Truman opposition to coup; Mussadiq, the Shah, and the 1953 coup; implementation of Operation AJAX; short- and long-term effects)
3. Water Diplomacy (Eisenhower and Israel: minimal economic aid, refusal of military assistance; technocratic response: Johnston Plan & water diplomacy; TVA for the Jordan River Valley?; tough technical negotiations, but de facto recognition of Israel as riparian state?; Arab League rejection of Johnston Plan; Dulles speech & obstacles to peace)
II. The Road to Suez
1. Nasser’s Egypt (U.S. background with Nasser—relationship with CIA, desire for military aid; United States and Anglo-Egyptian base settlement—negotiated agreement with Britain to get troops out by 1956, British rights to return in war; effect of base settlement—rise of pan-Arab rhetoric, tensions with IsraelàLavon Affair, fedayeen attacks; US, Nasser, and Aswan Dam; Nasser’s turn east—Bandung, Czech arms deal, recognition of PRC)
2. Containing Nasser (NSC 5412àcreation of “Special Group” to oversee covert ops; creation of Baghdad Pact—significance of Iraq, pulling Pakistan in; question of Jordanian membership, U.S. outside support; effects on Syria: internal instability and involvement of Western intelligence; 1954 coup & rise of Adnan Malki; assassination and anti-American surge—rise of Ba’athists)
3. Suez (origins of Project OMEGA; creation of anti-Nasser alliance: Eden and Munich analogy, France and Algerian war, Israel and tense relationship with Egypt, French arms; keeping Eisenhower in dark; Hungarian uprising—Secret Speech, rollback rhetoric, Soviet intervention, Nagy death; invasion launched and DDE response; withdrawal, Eden resignation, and UN settlement)
Eisenhower, part one–PowerPoint
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History 3345
The Cold War in the Middle East
22 September 2011
I. The United States, Israel, & Cold War Origins
1. The United States & Israeli Independence (FDR’s record: refugees, opposition to congressional action; postwar shift in opinion—Truman, congressional pressure, displaced persons (500,000); British recalcitrance; partition proposal; pressures on Truman—Congress, American Jews, State Department Arabists, military, fear of being outflanked by Soviets; stalling policy—supporting partition, arms embargo, trustee?; decision to recognize; limitations of move)
2. Israel & the Cold War (post-recognition Israel and the world; “nation in arms,” border skirmishes, and arms sales: initial neutrality—significance of Britain, then France, role of Czechoslovakia—ammo, spitfire planes; Israel and Eastern European dictatorships—fate of Romanian Jews; Stalin and Eastern Europe: fear of Titoism, Jews and E.E. nationalism; battle against “cosmopolitanism”: Hungarian purgesàSlánský/Clementis show trials in Czechoslovakia; differing approaches FRG and DDR; China—Israeli recognition of PRC 1950, Chinese recalcitrance)
II. The Early Cold War & the Arab World
1. The U.S.-Saudi Alliance (prewar foundations; Lend-Lease aid to Saudi Arabia, Dhahran air field [not air base], formalizing U.S.-Saudi alliance; postwar concessions; development of “Seven Sisters”)
2. North Africa (wartime legacy: British-American tensions, FDR, and question of imperialism; Egypt and US open door philosophy; fate of Libya—British desire for Cyrenaica, Soviet demand for joint trusteeship with Italy, US opposition to both; idea of Libyan independence as alternative—British support from Arab League, compromises on Somalia; independence; Wheelus Air Base & U.S. expansion into Libya; North Africa & State Department Eurocentrism—difference from FDR, decision to defer to French)
3. General Strategy (limits of U.S. support—economic aid, path to NSC 47/2—promotion of demo, peace process, “limited military aid” to Arab states)
early Cold War–Israel & Arab states
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History 3345
The Cold War in the Northern Tier
20 September 2011
I. Setting the Stage
1. The World the War Created (devastation Germany and Italy: power vacuumàwar-crimes trials, path to divided Germany; Red Army Liberation Eastern Europeàmemories of World War II, redrawing the boundaries, gradual consolidation of Soviet empire; French and British economic devastationà ties among official classes, pulling US in: Churchill and Iron Curtain speech, Monnet and EC, Adenauer and German politics; nuclear weaponsàpaper tiger?, fear of Soviet espionage)
2. Harry Truman and Foreign Policy (structural changeàTruman reliance on State Department and contrast from FDR; importance of Kennan: Long Telegram and interpretation of Soviet behavior; role of official class—Lovett, McCloy, Harriman, etc; institutional changeà1947 National Security Act—creation of DOD, JCS, CIA, NSC; overseas bases & military politics; domestic politicsàWallace & decline of left; divided government & importance of Senate Republicans; onset of “Red Scare”)
II. The Middle East Role
1. Iran (wartime divisions and Soviet promises; contradictory Soviet goals: Tudeh coup?, Azerbaijan and Kurdish separatist movements, desire for oil; Shah/Ahmad Qavam rivalry; US hesitation—significance of Long Telegram; appeals to UN; Soviet withdrawal and increased tensions)
2. Turkey (World War II legacy; Soviet pressures—straits, northeast, Kurdistan; US military reaction; Greek civil war and US dilemmas; Missouri to Istanbul; Truman and Congress; path to Truman Doctrine—100K mil aid)
3. Middle East & U.S. Grand Strategy (Northern Tier vs. Middle East: one region or two?; reaching out to Turkey; Shah and oil contracts; Egypt, HALFMOON, and base for Soviet attack; Korean War and NSC-68, Turkey and collective security; British desire for US military commitment—defense of M.E. or defense of Egypt?; US emphasis on regionalism, Turkish emphasis on internationalism; Turkey to NATO, collapse of MEC and JCS stress on military activities)
Cold War origins–Northern Tier PowerPoint
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History 3345
World War II & the Middle East
15 September 2011
I. Before Pearl Harbor
1. Start of World War II (Nazi-Soviet Pact and invasion of Poland; fall of France and rise of Churchill; creation of Vichy State & French retention of North Africa)
2. Italian Destabilization (entrance into war; Mussolini vision of new Roman Empire—Ethiopian, Albanian, Greek campaigns; Italian attack on Bahrain/Dhahran; pulling Germany into Balkans; suppression of Serbs, creation of Ustaše state; tensions with Britain on Libya-Egypt border—Operation Compass)
3. Northern Tier (Turkey: memories of WWI & playing both sides; from Ataturk to Inönü; concerns with Italian mare nostrum; alliance with Britain/France—1939, but then Turkish-Soviet tensions & path toward non-aggression pact with Nazis; Iran: prewar flirtations with Nazis, Persian Corridor & U.S. Lend-Lease policies; path to Anglo-Soviet invasion—abdication of Reza Shah, signing of Tripartite Treaty, origins of U.S. involvement)
4. Mandates (anti-semitism and use of Nazi propaganda; continuing significance of Grand Mufti—exile to Iraq & Rashid Ali Kilani coup; British invasion & creation of puppet state; Darlan & Paris Protocols—height of Vichy collaborationism?; Operation Exporter & Allied movement into Syria; Allied victory & path to independent Lebanon & Syria)
II. The Tumult of War
1. North Africa (US entry into war—FDR strategic vision, domestic calculations; Churchill and Balkans, Stalin and Second Front, decision for North African campaignàOperation TORCH; Darlan Deal and complications of Vichy diplomacy; transfer of Rommel; Britain and El Alemain; pincer campaign, Rommel defeat, fall of Tunisia—German POWs)
2. Northern Tier (Inönü strategic calculations, Turkish strategic benefits, severing relations with Germany; minorities: economic pressures, Turkey and Holocaust—Struma affair, Erkin in Vichy, Ülkümen in Rhodes; Iran occupation and route to postwar problems)
3. Diplomatic Matters (Grand Mufti & Bosnia campaign; Teheran Conference & issue of anti-colonialism; pressure on Turkey to enter war; Lend-Lease aid to Saudi Arabia, Dhahran air field, formalizing U.S.-Saudi alliance)
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History 3345
The Interwar Era
13 September 2011
I. Oil
1. Strategic, Political, & Economic Concerns (strategic effects of World War I: tanks and planes, late fighting on the Western Front; economic: Henry Ford and assembly line, dramatic growth of car sales, centrality to U.S. economy; political: Hoover and Dept. of Commerce, creation of BFDC; oil scandals—Fall & Teapot Dome)
2. The Origins of Oil Diplomacy (prewar U.S. dominance & fear of diminishing supply; British prewar diplomacy—protectorates over Kuwait & Iran, creation of Anglo-Persian Oil Company (1908), Anglo-Persian 1919 agreement; British/French postwar diplomacy—Syrian revolt, Hashemites to Iraq, detachment of Trans-jordan from Palestine mandate; development of Red Line Agreement—strategic realities and imperial pretensions; U.S. reaction: oil access as part of international agenda; development of Western cartel?)
3. Origins of the U.S.-Saudi Alliance (emergence of Saudi Arabia: Ibn Saud and postwar world, triumph over Hejaz; isolationism and 1920s approach; significance of Depression; reaching out to US—U.S. decision to extend recognition (1931); Standard Oil, ARAMCO, and foundation of US-Saudi alliance)
II. Road to World War II
1. Origins of War (Nazism and collapse of 1920s world order; initial moves: rearmament, movement into Rhineland, “Nazi Olympics”; anti-Nazi response—political divisions in Britain and France, Soviet purges; U.S. irrelevance: domestic non-interventionism—isolationists, labor and immigration; hostility of Chamberlain; negotiation of Munich agreement)
2. The Transformation of Palestine (Palestine: Grand Mufti, Jewish/Arab tensions, Palestinian anger with British; British retreat from Balfour Declaration & implementation of White Paper)
3. FDR and the Jewish Question (USOC and Nazi Olympics, Jewish refugees—Morgenthau, Ickes, and Eleanor Roosevelt vs. labor, State Department, FDR search for compromise—Alaska solution?, Dominican Republic idea; suspicion of Jewish leaders)
4. Start of World War II (Nazi-Soviet Pact and invasion of Poland; fall of France and rise of Churchill; creation of Vichy State & French retention of North Africa)
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History 3345
Wilsonianism
8 September 2011
I. Wilsonianism in Theory
1. Separating Balkans from the Middle East (Big Four & conflicting postwar visions; Orlando, Wilson, & fate of Treaty of London; Wilsonianism and eastern Europe—blending of realism and idealism; Yugoslavia & placement of Balkans in European international order)
2. Jews (international environment of era—Czechs, Balts, other ethnicities; Herzl and founding of Zionist movement—rise of late-19th century anti-semitism, nationalist environment; Palestine in OE; road to Balfour Declaration: significance of Lloyd George; US response to Balfour Declaration—weakness of movement, importance of Brandeis, Wilson and self-determination; Palestine in Sykes-Picot agreement)
3. Armenians (after-effects of WWI: moral claims & Western condemnation of genocide; strategic weaknesses—from Transcaucasian Republic to “independent” Armenia, Treaty of Batur; Wilson mandate concept; linkage with Sykes-Picot proposed boundaries & peace conference agreement)
II. Mapping the Modern Middle East
1. Collapse of Wilsonianism (1918 elections and new constitutional order; partisan opposition; attacks from left & right—conservatives and realist critique, peace progressives and anti-imperialist critique; Middle East as examples for anti-Wilsonians: conservatives, Article XXII and Armenia; peace progressives, Article XI, and Syria; Senate rejection of Versailles & demise of Armenia)
2. From Sèvres to Lausanne (anti-Turkish alliance & dismantling of Ottoman Empire; Mustafa Kemal & revival of Turkish nationalism; crushing of Dem. Rep. of Armenia and path to Treaty of Kars; pressure against Italians; Greek-Turkish war & path to Treaty of Lausanne; significance of Lausanneàannulling Sèvres, population transfer & new approach to minority rights)
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History 3345
World War I
6 September 2011
I. War Comes to the Ottoman Lands
1. Bosnia & Path to War(Bosnia in the Ottoman system—anomaly or typical?; failures of Austrian reforms; growth of Serb terrorism—Princip and Black Hand; archduke assassination and slow path to war; “Blank Check” and Kaiser beliefs; diplomatic incompetence; “use-it-or-lose-it” philosophy; why did the Austrians delay?; Russian and German mobilization; Austrian indecision and attack on Serbia; German invasion of Belgium and British entry into war; failure of the Schlieffen Plan; Eastern front & monumental Russian failures)
2. The War Develops (German-Turkish secret treaty—Aug. 1914; Turkish decision for war—Oct. 1914; Turkish war aims—attack on Black Sea ports; Russia, the Czar, and appeals to Armenia—failed Turkish invasion; Churchill, Britain, and the Middle East: strategic questions—maintain integrity of OE?, role of the Hejaz, Gallipoli campaign & effects on Commonwealth, British politics; Balkan front and two-stage invasion—Bulgarian decision to enter war, Treaty of London, Italian entrance, and opening of Italian front; collapse of Romania)
II. War, Diplomacy, & the U.S. Emergence as a Middle East Power
1. The Decline of the Turks (development of the Middle East front: Sykes-Picot and British-French diplomacy, Suez and British strategic desires, expansion from Iraq as war aim to Iraq and Palestine; nationalism and general Allied policy—Thomas Lawrence & encouragement of Arab revolt)
2. The United States and the Armenian Genocide (U.S. approach to war—Wilson & unrestricted submarine warfare, America as neutral arbiter; Young Turks and onset of genocide—legacy of tension, Russo-Turkish War, scapegoat for military difficulties international reaction: Turkish fears, German recalcitrance; Allied declaration of “crimes against humanity”; Wilson concerns—international law, fate of American missionaries and religious colleges, role of Lansing; Morgenthau response; New York Times and American press; collapse of relationship)
3. Wilson, the Middle East, and the War (fate of Turkey: U.S. strategic ambiguity—decision not to declare war against OE; Ottoman Empire in 14 Points; late developments in war; Allenby military pressure & increased German reinforcements; British land offensive 1917-8; Bolshevik revolution, successor states in east, and last-ditch Turkish offensive; collapse of Turkey)
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History 3345
The Decline of the Ottoman Empire (1900-14)
1 September 2011
I. Imperialism & The New International Order
1. British Imperialism (India as the “jewel in the crown”; UK, Russia, and Afghanistan—origins of the “Great Game”; Britain & Russia into Persia; Britain and Egypt—importance of Middle East, Suez and path to India; British, French, and alternative approaches to imperialism; race to Fashoda & long-term effects; development of Anglo-French entente; Britain, Boers, and Boer War—concentration camps, international opprobrium, unification of South Africa)
2. The American Embrace of Imperialism (election of 1896 and emergence of Republican majority; new arguments for imperialism—imitating the great powers, East Asian scramble for power, need to address trade deficit, Social Darwininism and new cultural theories; onset of war; growth of presidential power; transformation of international environment; Philippines war and collapse of imperialist consensus; TR& more assertive U.S. role)
II. Crises
1. New European Order (increasing European instability: replacement of Bismarck by Wilhelm II—desire for “place in the sun,” end of British “splendid isolation,” Anglo-German naval race; Franco-Russian alliance and 1905 realignment)
2. Morocco (French expansion into North Africa; Kaiser rhetorical challenge; Algeciras: U.S. invitation, German isolation, tightening of German-Austrian relations; second Moroccan crisis and Neukamerun as compensation; growth of “Berlin-to-Baghdad” concept & growing German-Turkish ties)
3. Balkans (1903: Serbian coup; Turkish instability and rise of Young Turks—difficulties with minorities; 1908 crisis and Austrian seizure of Bosnia—U.S. non-participation in diplomatic conference; creation of Balkan League and path to First Balkan War; creation of Albania; Second Balkan War and decline of Bulgaria; continuing instability, Bosnia, role of Serb terrorism & path to World War I)
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History 3345
Introduction: 18th and 19th Centuries
30 August 2011
Website: http://kc-johnson.com
Email: kcjohnson9@gmail.com
I. Strategic Uncertainty
1. The United States, the Middle East, and the 18th Century World (Euroecentric world: France and Britain as superpowers; US independence and importance of international assistance, Ottoman Empire and “imperial overstretch”: European difficulties, Russian and Austrian rivalries; Napoleonic wars and Egypt, difficulties with North Africa)
2. The Barbary Wars (independence, the Treaty of Paris, and post-independence trade disruptions; strategic weaknesses of Articles government; early debates and anti-militarist attitudes; the First Party system and the Navy; diplomatic incompetence; tensions with Tripoli and Tunis; Jefferson and tension between realism/idealism; Jefferson and presidential power; nature of war and aftermath—distinction between ransom and tribute, Second Barbary War; growth of British power in the Mediterranean)
II. U.S. Expansion
1. Commerce and the Levant (commerce and the Northeastern economy; role of East Asia; United States as counterpoint to Britain; interest in Turkey Persia, Egypt; limited nature overall commerce)
2. The United States Encounters the Ottoman Empire (image of the infidel; origins of Greek revolt; American sympathy and sectional divisions; J.Q. Adams, presidential ambitions, and origins of Monroe Doctrine; Turkish strategic needs; road to commercial treaty: 1830; Persian treaty)
3. Missionaries (the Ottomans and religious minorities; creation of ABCFM—“artillery of heaven”; fundraising and the Second Great Awakening; American interest in the Holy Land, Smyrna, Beirut; beyond religion: printing press, education; gradual expansion to Armenia)
III. Turkish Decline
1. British-French intervention; nature of fighting—military firsts; Russian defeat; postwar settlement—how to handle Balkan areas on Turkish frontier?, strategic importance of Romania, Russian destruction Black Sea fleet)
2. The Russo-Turkish War (Russian expansionism and central Asia; search for warm-water port—Dardanelles as preferred option; Russian excuses—Lebanon crisis, Crete crisis, treatment of Christians in O.E.; uprisings in Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia; Bulgarian “massacres” and international attention—development of human rights law; Serbian war and Russian support; Turkish passivity and Russian victory—dual front war; from San Stefano to Congress of Berlin—demise of “Big Bulgaria”)
3. U.S. Withdrawal (Civil War and turn inwards; termination of Mediterranean Fleet; U.S. irrelevancy and European imperialism; United States and Armenia—decline of the missionary impulse, Chinese temptation, continued trade with Ottoman Empire)
KC Johnson 